U.S. Housing Report: Signs of Stabilization and Regional Shifts Amid Elevated Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates continue to be the dominant force shaping buyer behavior across the nation. As of late May, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have settled around 6.89%. This level represents a significant barrier for many potential homebuyers, particularly first-time homebuyers who have been priced out of markets they could previously afford. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions continue to ripple through the housing sector, with economists closely watching for any signals of rate cuts that could provide relief to prospective buyers.

The impact of these elevated rates extends beyond individual purchasing decisions to broader market dynamics. Homes under contract declined in April, suggesting that despite rate challenges, motivated buyers are finding ways to enter the market. This resilience indicates a fundamental shift in buyer behavior, with buyers becoming more strategic and selective in their approach.

Jared Antin, managing director and associate real estate broker at Elegran, offers valuable perspective on current market conditions that reflect broader national trends. His observation that “This summer, NYC will be defined by its most underappreciated quality: stability” captures a sentiment that’s increasingly visible in select major metros, particularly those with established luxury markets. After years of pandemic-driven volatility, many urban centers are experiencing a return to more predictable market patterns.

Antin notes a significant shift in buyer psychology: “If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell, now might be the perfect time to start the conversation.” This reflects a measured return of confidence among market participants who had previously been sidelined by volatility and high borrowing costs. The NYC market’s stabilization provides a template for understanding how other major metropolitan areas might evolve throughout the summer months.

The Manhattan market’s performance offers particularly relevant insights for luxury segments nationwide. Antin observes that “This renewed price movement—paired with rising global interest, a weakening dollar, and a disciplined buyer pool—is a powerful reminder of why Manhattan moves counter to national trends,” highlighting how premium urban markets often operate independently of broader economic pressures. This dynamic is evident in other high-end markets from San Francisco to Miami, where unique local factors continue to drive demand despite national headwinds.

One of the most encouraging developments in the national housing market has been the steady improvement in inventory levels. The inventory of homes for sale rose 30.6% year-over-year in April, marking the 18th consecutive month of inventory growth. This sustained increase in available properties represents a fundamental shift from the severe shortage conditions that characterized the pandemic era.

The inventory improvement is particularly pronounced in markets that experienced the most dramatic price appreciation during 2020-2022. Cities like San Diego and Washington, D.C. are seeing substantial increases in available homes, providing buyers with more options and reducing the intense competition that defined recent years. This rebalancing is creating more choice and negotiating power for buyers who have been waiting for market conditions to improve—though affordability challenges remain due to elevated mortgage rates.

However, inventory improvements vary significantly by price point and location. Nicole Gary, licensed associated real estate broker at Keller Williams NYC, notes that the luxury South Florida housing market is experiencing limited inventory: “While the broader market has leveled off across both the East and West Coasts of Florida, the ultra-luxury segment ($10M+) remains active in East Coast cities like Miami and Palm Beach, driven by limited inventory,” she said. 

Regional price patterns show flat or falling prices in most areas, marking a significant departure from the uniform price appreciation seen during the pandemic. This geographic variation reflects local economic conditions, population trends, and housing supply dynamics that are increasingly diverging across different metropolitan areas.

In April, cities like Austin and Phoenix experienced price declines, providing relief for local buyers who were priced out during the boom years. Conversely, established East Coast markets are showing more resilience, with modest appreciation continuing in cities like Boston. 

Buyer behavior has undergone a major shift, defined by greater selectivity and strategic decision-making. Buyers are taking more time to evaluate properties, conducting more thorough due diligence, and negotiating more aggressively than during the pandemic era.

This behavioral change extends beyond individual transactions to broader market dynamics. The days of bidding wars on every listing have given way to a more discerning environment where strong fundamentals—like pricing, presentation, and location—dictate a home’s market performance. Properties that are well-priced and properly marketed are selling within reasonable timeframes, while overpriced or poorly presented homes are sitting on the market longer.

The current market conditions have significant implications for housing policy at both federal and local levels. The persistent affordability challenges facing many Americans highlight the need for comprehensive approaches to housing supply, zoning reform, and first-time buyer assistance programs. State and local governments are increasingly exploring innovative solutions, from inclusionary zoning requirements to public-private partnerships aimed at increasing affordable housing stock.

While policy alone won’t resolve affordability challenges, these initiatives are becoming increasingly influential in shaping long-term housing outcomes. The NYC market’s experience with various housing policies provides valuable lessons for other metropolitan areas grappling with similar challenges.

Jared Antin highlights market stability as a key insight for understanding the current national housing landscape: “In a world full of noise, Manhattan’s stability is the signal.” This observation captures the essence of what many markets are experiencing—a move away from dramatic volatility toward more predictable, sustainable growth patterns.

The stability that NYC real estate professionals are observing reflects broader economic maturation following years of pandemic-driven disruption. As markets settle into new patterns, both buyers and sellers are developing more realistic expectations and making decisions based on long-term considerations rather than short-term speculation.

This stability doesn’t mean stagnation. Rather, it represents a healthier market dynamic where transactions are driven by genuine housing needs and financial capability rather than fear of missing out or speculative investment. As Antin notes, “This summer, NYC will be defined by its most underappreciated quality: stability.”

As June begins, the US housing market finds itself in a period of cautious transition. While challenges remain significant—particularly around affordability and mortgage rates—there are encouraging signs of stabilization and adaptation. Insights from estate professionals provide valuable perspective on how local market dynamics reflect broader national trends.

The housing market’s evolution throughout the remainder of 2025 will depend largely on broader economic factors, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and the continued adaptation of buyers and sellers to new market realities. While uncertainty persists, the foundation for a more balanced and sustainable housing market appears to be taking shape, with major metropolitan areas serving as compelling examples of how markets can find stability amid change.