Navigating NYC’s Winter Real Estate Market: Key Predictions for the Year Ahead

After nine years of declining property values, Manhattan’s high-end real estate offers attractive opportunities.

“If you purchased Manhattan real estate in the past nine years, you are likely taking a loss as a seller,” said Nicole Gary, a Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker at Keller Williams NYC. “This creates an opportunity for buyers to upgrade to larger pieces of trophy real estate and secure assets that are likely to appreciate in value.”

Maria Belen Avellaneda, a Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker at Keller Williams NYC, also sees strong momentum in the luxury segment: “The luxury market, especially properties priced over $4 million, has outperformed expectations. September’s post-Labor Day week saw 29 contracts signed—a post-2006 record—and 97 contracts were finalized for properties over $4 million, exceeding the 10-year average by nearly 37 percent.” Below, we highlight two trends to watch this winter regarding the luxury market.

A Growing Preference for Condos Over Co-ops

High-net-worth buyers in NYC increasingly favor condos over co-ops due to their flexibility, modern features, and full-service amenities.

“There is a noticeable preference for condos, particularly those with full-service amenities and customization options,” said Avellaneda. “Buyers are seeking lifestyle-oriented properties that prioritize convenience and luxury.”

This shift has sparked heightened interest in new developments offering amenities such as private outdoor spaces, state-of-the-art fitness centers, and 24-hour concierge services. Gary agrees, adding a financial perspective. “Buyers today are not just looking for a home—they’re looking for the right deal. Properties must be priced correctly, with amenities that match their lifestyle preferences. Buyers are being more patient and waiting for deals right now.”

Local Supply Shortages 

Despite an overall increase in inventory across NYC, neighborhoods like TriBeCa and the West Village are experiencing supply shortages, which is driving up prices. “There is a shortage of great inventory right now in certain neighborhoods, driving prices up on specific luxury properties due to supply and demand,” said Gary.

Avellaneda offers an optimistic view, suggesting that increased listings could invigorate contract activity. “Inventory expansion, often seen in the fall, offers a broader range of listings, which could drive higher contract volumes, particularly in the luxury sector.”

The mid-market sector, encompassing properties priced between $750,000 and $2 million, continues to demonstrate resilience amid broader market fluctuations. These homes, often sought by professionals, young families, and downsizing retirees, are tightly intertwined with mortgage trends. Higher interest rates have constrained affordability, yet savvy buyers are leveraging seasonal slowdowns to secure favorable terms. Notably, neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens, such as Park Slope, Williamsburg, and Astoria, remain hotspots due to their blend of urban amenities, community appeal, and relative affordability compared to Manhattan.

Douglas Wagner, Director of Brokerage Services at BOND New York Properties, describes this winter as pivotal: “The winter of 2025 promises either to release the built-up pressure of nearly 30 months of market-wide anemia, or it will be yet another winter of discontent for sellers and their real estate agents.” He emphasizes the weight of economic factors and shifting buyer psychology at this critical juncture. Below are two concepts to consider regarding the mid-market sector:

The Appeal of Brooklyn and Queens

Brooklyn and Queens continue to draw attention from buyers looking for a balance of affordability and urban amenities. While the market in Brooklyn has softened slightly, it remains competitive. Antin notes that “well-priced homes are still moving quickly” and sees demand recovering as interest rates decline further. For sellers, strategic pricing is key, as competitive listings often generate strong interest—even bidding wars—in the right neighborhoods.

Wagner highlights the appeal of these boroughs, particularly as Manhattan inventory remains tight. Brooklyn’s increasing opportunities for buyers, coupled with its reputation as a family-friendly and vibrant community, make it a compelling option for mid-market shoppers. Wagner predicts that “a post-election landscape, combined with lower interest rates and shifting buyer psychology, is expected to drive market activity throughout the winter, setting the stage for a highly competitive and bustling spring market.”

Seasonality and Strategic Timing

Seasonality plays a crucial role in shaping mid-market dynamics. With fewer listings typically hitting the market during the holiday months, buyers often encounter limited inventory. Antin advises, “This winter presents a window of opportunity for buyers to act early and secure favorable deals, with the potential to refinance later as rates drop.” He cautions that waiting until spring could mean higher prices and increased competition.

Wagner agrees, adding that while the upcoming months may bring fewer listings, they could also create unique opportunities for motivated buyers. “With more buyers in the market and more properties finally listed, the winter market feels much like some spring markets, and New York City finally gets to enjoy a busy and competitive marketplace for the first time since 2022.”

After a period of slowed activity, the foreign investment segment is gradually regaining momentum after a lull induced by pandemic restrictions and geopolitical uncertainties. New York City’s enduring global appeal—anchored by its status as a financial and cultural epicenter—continues to attract investors seeking stable, long-term returns.

“We are seeing more money come back to New York from overseas, especially Asia and UAE,” said Gary. “This market has slowed a bit, but we are starting to see more international money come back in recent weeks.”

Avellaneda sees this as a reflection of NYC’s global appeal: “Luxury buyers across key U.S. markets prioritize upscale homes with high-end amenities and unique offerings. In NYC, the demand for trophy properties remains resilient, particularly in neighborhoods like TriBeCa and the West Village.”

The two brokers also acknowledge how global politics influence buyer behavior. Some international clients are taking a wait-and-see approach due to the U.S. presidential election. “I have seen several clients in a holding pattern, waiting to see the outcome of the election,” Gary explains. “International clients with trade agreements with the U.S. will only bring their money here if one party wins. Usually, the market slows before an election and picks up just after.”

While Gary focuses on the immediate geopolitical uncertainties, Avellaneda points to the overall market strength, supported by lower mortgage rates: “Buyer confidence is rising, supported by mortgage rates reaching their lowest point in 1.5 years. This rate relief is expected to accelerate sales volume, particularly for luxury properties appealing to cash buyers or those seeking low-interest leverage on high-value assets.”

Insights From David Kong With Keller Williams NYC: A Closer Look At South Korea’s Investor Network

New York City holds a prime position for international investors. David Kong, Licensed Real Estate Salesperson with Keller Williams NYC, shares firsthand insights into this resurgence, particularly following his recent trip to South Korea.

Kong spent two weeks engaging with over 150 investors at a prominent South Korean conference, where he observed keen interest in U.S. property acquisitions for the coming year. “During my time in South Korea, I met with a diverse array of professionals—existing clients, CPAs, attorneys, private bankers, and representatives from immigration firms—all working closely with individuals eager to relocate capital for American real estate acquisitions,” he shares. This network highlighted South Koreans’ preference for investments in the $1 million to $5 million range, an active segment gathering momentum.

However, Kong points out a significant hurdle: “The strong US dollar remains a notable challenge for many investors.” Despite this, he expresses optimism for a surge in foreign purchase activity come spring 2025. “With the warming economic climate and a slight easing of currency pressures, it is believed that the appetite for investment will flourish, especially in cities like Dallas and Manhattan, with Hawaii also making a notable appearance as a favored destination.”

Texas, in particular, has emerged as a hotspot for South Korean investors due to its tax-friendly policies, growing manufacturing sector, and relatively affordable real estate prices. “Texas’ favorable business environment continues to attract international attention, making it a prime contender for investment,” Kong notes. Yet, New York City remains a perennial favorite. “Investors are drawn to the city’s unparalleled education system, abundant work opportunities, and vibrant lifestyle,” he emphasizes. These factors provide a stable foundation that resonates with foreign buyers seeking secure and lucrative investments.

Interestingly, the political climate in the United States, including the upcoming elections, has not significantly impacted foreign investors’ decision-making processes. “Many view the American market as a consistent and reliable option, indicating a long-term belief in the robustness of the US economy,” Kong observes.

Looking ahead, the interest from South Korean buyers is poised to grow. “With a proactive approach to preparing for investment opportunities, these buyers are positioning themselves for a fruitful future in the real estate market,” Kong predicts. As New York City continues to be a magnet for wealth and opportunity, the upcoming months promise to reshape the landscape of foreign investment dramatically.

Unlike other metro areas that saw rapid price escalation during the pandemic years, Manhattan’s pricing has remained relatively stable. Jared Antin, Managing Director at Elegran Forbes Global Properties, notes that “on a price-per-square-foot basis, Manhattan prices today are similar to what they were in 2016.” However, he predicts this trend is set to change as rising demand and shrinking inventory converge. Antin adds, “As first-time buyers enter the market and investors shift capital from overheated markets like Miami, Manhattan is expected to see upward pressure on prices.”

This perspective is echoed by Wagner, who foresees two potential scenarios shaping the market in early 2025. In an optimistic outlook, declining mortgage rates and increased buyer activity could lead to a bustling winter season: “Buyers are eager to get off the sidelines and into the real estate market as sellers who have held off listing finally recognize the moment and bring properties to market at a higher-than-usual volume.” This could set the stage for a Manhattan market rally, with price appreciation extending into spring.

However, Wagner also warns of an alternative scenario: “If ten-year treasury yields remain in the 4% zone and mortgage interest rates hover just under 7%, this could bring about continued low listing inventory for the winter months. High prices will discourage buyers and push more people into the tight rental market.”

Both Wagner and Antin agree that spring 2025 is poised to be a turning point. Antin highlights the easing of the “lock-up” effect, where homeowners have been hesitant to sell due to the gap between their existing mortgage rates and current higher rates. As rates decline, more sellers are expected to re-enter the market, creating a virtuous cycle of increased inventory and demand. He warns, however, that “each new listing will likely create new demand as sellers become buyers, potentially keeping upward pressure on prices and tipping the market toward a seller’s advantage.”

Wagner is optimistic about the near-term potential: “Scenario One brings a market rally to the NYC co-op and condo market, with both Fed rate cuts in the rearview, lower base lending rates, and a measurable reduction in mortgage interest rates.” This, combined with renewed consumer confidence and the anticipated easing of affordability constraints, could usher in the most active market in years.

Antin emphasizes that buyers who act early will benefit the most: “First-mover advantage is real this winter. Buyers who act now will benefit from more negotiability and lower prices before the market heats up further in late spring and summer.”

New York City’s real estate market reflects a mix of challenges and opportunities across its luxury, mid-market, and foreign investment sectors. Shifting buyer preferences toward modern condos, a resurgence of international buyers, and easing mortgage rates indicate resilience and growth potential in the luxury market. Meanwhile, mid-market properties in Brooklyn and Queens remain attractive, despite affordability constraints. Experts agree that strategic opportunities exist for buyers and investors in navigating NYC’s dynamic real estate landscape in 2025.