Canadian Housing Report: CREA Slashes Forecast as Tariff Fears and Economic Uncertainty Stall Housing Recovery

According to the April 15th CREA monthly housing report, national home sales fell 4.8% in March compared to February, continuing a downward trend observed over the past several months. Sales are now 20% below their recent peak in November 2024. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, sales were down 9.3% year-over-year, marking the lowest March sales since 2009.​

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) declined 1% month-over-month and was down 2.1% annually. The national average selling price decreased by 3.7% compared to March 2024, settling at $678,331. These figures indicate a cooling market, with prices softening across various regions.​

An April 15th Globe and Mail article captures the buyer mindset behind the numbers. CREA’s own senior economist, Shaun Cathcart, clarified that the cooling activity is “mostly about tariff uncertainty,” and described the rapid reversal in momentum bluntly: “We’ve gone from a slam dunk rebound year to treading water at best.”

The number of newly listed properties increased by 3% month-over-month in March. However, with sales declining, the national sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 45.9%, down from 49.7% in February. This ratio is the lowest since February 2009 and below the long-term average of 54.9%, suggesting a shift towards a buyer’s market.​

There were 165,800 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of March 2025, up 18.3% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average of around 174,000 listings for this time of year. The months of inventory—a measure of how long it would take to sell current listings at the current sales pace—stood at 5.1 months nationally, the highest level since the early months of the pandemic.​

Quebec

Despite a broadly cooling national housing landscape, 2025 has revealed striking regional contrasts. Provinces such as Quebec, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and several Atlantic markets have shown resilience or even price acceleration, while Ontario and British Columbia—Canada’s two largest markets—continue to contend with steep declines in both sales and consumer confidence.

According to an April 15th CTV News article, Quebec stands out as one of the most robust performers. The province’s market-weighted median home price rose 7.6 percent in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year. Quebec City led the province with a 16.9 percent year-over-year gain, reaching $457,600 for a single-family home, while Greater Montreal rose 8.3 percent to $715,700.

Real estate broker Marc Lefrançois attributed this strength to increased buyer activity following recent interest rate cuts, noting that Quebec’s market “just accelerated,” while larger markets like Toronto “really fell flat.” Royal LePage also reported that 65 percent of Quebecers expressed confidence in the economy, reinforcing positive sentiment at the provincial level.

The Prairies

The Prairies are also outperforming national expectations. As reported in an April 11th Real Estate Magazine article, Saskatchewan recorded 1,277 residential sales in March—an 8 percent increase over March 2024 and 13 percent above the province’s 10-year average. These gains marked the ninth consecutive month of above-average sales. Benchmark prices rose more than 6 percent year-over-year, with Saskatoon reaching a record high of $415,900 and Regina climbing to $326,300. The inventory crunch is driving these increases: Saskatoon entered April with only 0.98 months of supply, and Regina had just 1.29—well below balanced market levels. “The spring market is here,” said SRA CEO Chris Guérette. “We continue to see near-record demand, and there isn’t enough inventory to meet that demand right now.”

Manitoba

A similar story is unfolding in Manitoba. An April 8th CTV News article showed that total property sales across the province reached 1,189 in March, a 6 percent year-over-year gain. Residential detached sales rose 4 percent to 776 units, while the average price for this category jumped 12 percent to an all-time high of $470,399. Condominium sales were also up by 6 percent. The total dollar volume for the month surpassed $479 million, a 14 percent increase from March 2024. “March represents the ninth consecutive month with all MLS sales increases over the previous year,” said WRREB President Michael Froese. West St. Paul saw a 124 percent increase in residential detached sales, while Oakbank and Niverville/Ritchot posted 60 and 50 percent gains, respectively.

Atlantic Canada

Atlantic Canada is also defying the national slowdown. According to a March 18th City News Everywhere article, Halifax-Dartmouth home prices rose 0.5 percent in February to $557,300, significantly outperforming Nova Scotia overall, where prices declined by 1.2 percent. Year-over-year, Halifax prices were up 7.1 percent. Meanwhile, New Brunswick saw particularly robust growth. Fredericton home prices soared 18.2 percent annually, followed by Saint John at 16.6 percent and Moncton at 5.0 percent. Even St. John’s, Newfoundland, recorded a 12.8 percent annual increase, while Prince Edward Island posted a 1.6 percent rise year-over-year despite a slight monthly dip.

Prince Edward Island

Prince Edward Island, in particular, demonstrated surprising sales strength. According to a March 23rd CBC article, the province saw a 10 percent jump in sales from January to February and a 7.7 percent increase year-over-year. In contrast, national sales declined by 9.2 percent monthly and 9.7 percent annually during that same period. CREA Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart attributed this divergence to P.E.I.’s relative affordability. “Places that are relatively more affordable have done quite a bit better during this time,” he noted. However, he cautioned that smaller markets can be volatile, adding, “One car doesn’t make a parade. We’ll have to see how that plays out going forward.”

Toronto

The outlook is markedly different in Ontario’s largest market. As reported in an April 3rd BlogTO article, the Greater Toronto Area experienced its slowest March in over two decades. Only 5,011 homes were sold—down 23 percent from the previous year—while new listings surged nearly 29 percent to more than 17,000. The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark declined 3.8 percent year-over-year, and the average selling price fell 2 percent to $1,093,254. TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule acknowledged improved affordability due to falling prices and borrowing costs, stating, “Homeownership has become more affordable over the past 12 months,” but she added that many prospective buyers are still waiting for greater economic clarity. TRREB’s Jason Mercer emphasized that buyers are taking a “wait-and-see approach” due to U.S.-Canada trade tensions and the upcoming federal election.

British Columbia

British Columbia is facing even more severe challenges. According to an April 14th CityNews Vancouver article, home sales in the province fell 9.6 percent year-over-year in March. Revenue dropped 13.9 percent—or roughly $900 million—compared to March 2024. Overall transaction volume was 35 percent below B.C.’s 10-year average for the month. The average home price fell 4.8 percent to $963,323, with Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, and Victoria seeing the sharpest declines. However, smaller markets like Vancouver Island and Northern B.C. saw modest increases. “The economic uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs on Canadian goods has some potential buyers hesitant, particularly in the province’s larger markets,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Buyers continued to shift back to the sidelines in March.”

Despite multiple rate cuts by the Bank of Canada since June 2024, housing demand has failed to rebound as strongly as many anticipated. CREA’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart, speaking in the CBC  interview, cited the January inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump and his threats of renewed tariffs as a turning point. “Uncertainty really does throw cold water on those… long-term decisions,” he said. “All of the stars are aligned for a rebound year in the housing market, except for the fact that the U.S. is threatening to crash our economy all of a sudden. So much for 2025 being the first normal year of the 2020s.”

Cathcart also warned that inflationary pressures caused by tariffs could limit the Bank of Canada’s ability to cut rates further. “That could be bad for the housing market all over the place, but definitely worse for places that are more expensive,” he noted, citing Ontario and British Columbia as being particularly vulnerable.

In The Globe and Mail article, Mackenzie noted that “the key trend word right now is uncertainty.” adding that even with rate cuts and easing inflation, many prospective buyers are holding back, unsure of where the economy is headed. Mackenzie stressed the importance of long-term planning, advising clients to think beyond immediate conditions. “Do we have a plan? Can you afford it? Do you qualify for it, and how does that look today or three to five years out with any life cycle changes?” she asked.

Together, these insights from multiple sources reinforce the growing consensus: despite some underlying positives like rate relief and moderating prices, macroeconomic instability—particularly linked to trade policy—is the dominant force shaping Canadian housing market behavior in 2025.

In our next article, HAVEN will take a further look at the numbers: how Canada’s housing market is reacting to prevailing economic factors influencing real estate.